Former first lady Michelle Obama, who has never expressed any desire to run for office, would easily beat former President Donald Trump in a head-to-head matchup, according to a new poll. This makes her the only hypothetical Democratic successor to President Biden who would do so. A Reuters/Ipsos poll released Tuesday found Michelle, 60, defeating Trump, 78, by 11 percentage points, 50% to 39%, among registered voters.
In other matchups, Biden and Trump are tied at 40% each, while Trump narrowly defeats Vice President Kamala Harris by a single percentage point (43% to 42%). Trump would also prevail over several Democratic governors who might replace Biden, including California’s Gavin Newsom, Michigan’s Gretchen Whitmer, Kentucky’s Andy Beshear, and Illinois’ J.B. Pritzker.
While her husband Barack Obama publicly defended Biden following his debate performance against Trump last week, Michelle Obama has kept her distance from the first family throughout the re-election cycle. Michelle, who enjoys favorable opinions among voters according to the Reuters/Ipsos survey, maintained close ties with Hunter Biden’s ex-wife Kathleen Buhle during the Obama administration and is reportedly upset about her friend’s estrangement from the first family.
Michelle also explicitly declined to back Biden, 81, when asked about his re-election campaign during a 2022 interview. Barack Obama has appeared at fundraisers for Biden throughout the 2024 election cycle, most recently helping him offstage on July 15 after a major fundraiser from Hollywood donors, where ABC late-night host Jimmy Kimmel interviewed the pair at the Peacock Theater in Los Angeles.
The 44th president did not hold back in criticizing his former VP’s “bad” performance against Trump at the CNN-hosted debate on June 27, while still urging Democrats to support Biden. Privately, Obama has expressed concerns that the race might already be over, after previously doubting Biden’s ability to win during his 2020 presidential run.
Unless he steps down voluntarily, Biden is almost certain to be the Democratic nominee in 2024. On Wednesday, the 81-year-old reassured his campaign staff of his intention to stay in the race, but reportedly confided to a close ally that he might be finished if his polling numbers continue to decline amid future public appearances. According to the Reuters/Ipsos poll, more than half (56%) of Americans say Biden should drop out, while 46% say Trump should suspend his campaign.
The Reuters/Ipsos poll was conducted July 1-2, surveying 1,070 US adults, 892 of whom were registered voters. The margins of error were plus or minus 3.2 percentage points for all respondents and 3.5 percentage points for registered voters.
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